Forecasting of Catfish Sales by Time Series Using the SARIMA method
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24002/jbi.v11i2.3535Abstract
Abstrak. Sistem informasi yang mengotomatiskan proses bisnis, terutama dengan persyaratan khusus masih relevan saat ini. Clarias Makmur, sebuah usaha mikro di Indonesia yang membiakkan dan menjual ikan lele menggunakan sistem informasi ini untuk menjalankan penjualan, pengeluaran, modal, dan pelaporan mereka. Penjualan ikan lele sebagai makhluk hidup memiliki ciri khas tersendiri yang menunjukkan pola musiman yang unik. Sebuah model bernama SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kemudian diusulkan untuk memprediksi penjualan. Lebih lanjut, sistem yang disebut SITRAN dibuat online supaya perusahaan mikro ini beroperasi secara fleksibel. Ada 400 data penjualan yang digunakan dalam metode ini untuk membuat model dan prediksi, sedangkan 100 data lainnya digunakan untuk menguji akurasi metode. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa SARIMAX (21,2,0) (1,0,0,12) adalah model terbaik yang ditemukan dalam percobaan dan yang memberikan RMSE terkecil.
Kata kunci: prediksi; penjualan ikan lele; pola musiman; SARIMA
Abstract. An information system that automates a business process, especially with specific requirement is still relevant these days. Clarias Makmur, a micro cooperation in Indonesia that breeds and sells catfish uses such an information system to carry out their sales, expenses, capital and reporting. The sales of catfish as a living creature have their own characteristics showing the unique seasonal pattern. A model named SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) is then proposed to predict the sales. Furthermore the system called SITRAN is made to be online for the cooperation to operate flexibly. There are 400 sales data used for the method to model and predict, while another 100 are used to test the method accuracy. The result shows that SARIMAX(21,2,0)(1,0,0,12) is the best model found in the experiment giving the smallest RMSE.
Keywords: prediction; catfish sales; seasonal pattern; SARIMA
References
Badan Pusat Statistik, “Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Triwulan IV-2018,” No. 15/02/Th.XXII, 6 Februari 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.bps.go.id/pressrelease/2019/02/06/1619/ekonomi-indonesia-2018-tumbuh-5-17-persen.html
Badan Pusat Statistik, “Keadaan Ketenagakerjaan Indonesia Agustus 2018,” No. 92/11/Th. XXI, 05 November 2018. [Online]. Available: https://www.bps.go.id/pressrelease/2018/11/05/1485/agustus-2018--tingkat-pengangguran-terbuka--tpt--sebesar-5-34-persen.html
A. R. Fathurrohman, “Pengembangan usaha mikro melalui budidaya ikan lele sangkuriang,” EMPATI Jurnal Ilmu Kesejahatan Sosial, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 61–70, 2018.
F. F. Riska, M. Primyastanto, and Z. Abidin, “Strategi pengembangan usaha budidaya ikan lele (clarias sp.) pada usaha perseorangan ‘toni makmur’ di kawasan agropolitan Desa Kauman Kecamatan Ngoro Kabupaten Jombang Jawa Timur,” ESCOFIM Economic and Social of Fisheries and Marine Journal, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 48–54, 2015.
D. K. Dewi And J. H. Mulyo, “Analisis produksi budidaya ikan lele (clarias gariepinus): pendekatan fungsi produksi cobb douglas”, Jurnal Perikanan Universitas Gadjah Mada, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 54–60, 2015.
S. R. Purwati, Zulkarnaini, and Hendrik, “Analisis usaha budidaya ikan lele dumbo (clarias gariepinus) menggunakan penerapan sistem bioflok dan sistem konvensional di Kelurahan Palas Kecamatan Rumbai Kota Pekanbaru Provinsi Riau,” Jurnal Online Mahasiswa Fakultas Perikanan dan Ilmu Kelautan Universitas Riau, vol. 5, no. 1, 2018.
S. E. Sim, K. G. Tay, A. Huong, and W. K. Tiong, "Forecasting electricity consumption using SARIMA method in IBM SPSS software", Universal Journal of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, vol 6(5B), pp.103-114, 2019, [Online] doi: 10.13189/ujeee.2019.061614
S. W. Gikungu, A. G. Waititu, and J. M. Kihoro, “Forecasting inflation rate in Kenya using SARIMA model”, American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, vol. 4, no. 1, 2015, pp. 15-18, [Online] doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20150401.13
J. C. Ramesh Reddy, T. Ganesh, M. Venkateswaran, PRS Reddy, "Forecasting of monthly mean rainfall in Rayalaseema", International Journal of Current Research and Review, vol. 9, no. 24, December 2017, [Online] doi: 10.7324/IJCRR.2017.9244
L. Martínez-Acosta, J. P. Medrano-Barboza, Á. López-Ramos, J. F. R. López and Á. A. López-Lambraño, "SARIMA approach to generating synthetic monthly rainfall in the Sinú River watershed in Colombia", Atmosphere, vol. 11, pp. 1-16, 2020, [Online] doi:10.3390/atmos11060602
H. A. Maulana, K.W. Harahap, Adriyansyah, Rofiroh, F. Zainuddin, "Permodelan produksi kopi Indonesia dengan menggunakan Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) ", Jurnal Saintika UNPAM , vol. 2, no. 1, Juli 2019.
R. D. Apriyanto and H. P. Putro, “Tingkat kegagalan dan keberhasilan proyek sistem informasi di Indonesia,” Seminar Nasional Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi 2018 (SENTIKA 2018), Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 2018, pp. 395–402.
R. Trimahardhika and E. Sutinah, “Penggunaan rapid development dalam perancangan sistem informasi perpustakaan,” Jurnal Informatika, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 249-260, 2017.
W. Wulandari and A. Priyono, “E – commerce pakaian pada distro bahana shop,” Jurnal TAM (Technology Acceptance Model), vol. 3, pp. 54–58, 2014.
S. Sriyanto, B. Purwanggono, and P. Nugroho, "Perancangan sistem informasi toko emas," J@ti Undip: Jurnal Teknik Industri, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 15-24, Feb. 2012. [Online] doi: https://doi.org/10.12777/jati.5.1.15-24
F. Firmansyah, I M. Sukarsa, and P. W. Buana, “Integrasi kontrol internal pada sistem informasi manajemen koperasi,” Jurnal Ilmiah Merpati Universitas Udayana, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 47–55, 2018.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright of this journal is assigned to Jurnal Buana Informatika as the journal publisher by the knowledge of author, whilst the moral right of the publication belongs to author. Every printed and electronic publications are open access for educational purposes, research, and library. The editorial board is not responsible for copyright violation to the other than them aims mentioned before. The reproduction of any part of this journal (printed or online) will be allowed only with a written permission from Jurnal Buana Informatika.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
