Factors Influencing Non-Performing Loans in State-Owned Banks’ Consumer Loans in Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24002/kinerja.v30i1.11677Keywords:
consumer loans, non-performing loans, internal bank factors, macroeconomic, moral hazard debtorsAbstract
This research aims to examine the factors that influence Non-Performing Loan (NPL) consumer credit at state-owned banks in Indonesia. In this study, consumer credit refers to loans granted by banks to consumers, while Non-Performing Loan consumer credit refers to consumer credit that experiences repayment problems. Consumer credit base interest rate, the amount of consumer credit distribution, the consumer price index, the residential property price index, and the debt service ratio act as independent variables, and the Non-Performing Loan consumer credit variable stands as the dependent variable. The data used are annual panel data from the period of 2011–2023, and the analysis uses the panel-data regression method of the common effect model. The results of the study indicate that the consumer credit base interest rate, the consumer price index, the residential property price index, and the debt service ratio do not have a significant effect, while the amount of consumer credit distribution and the residential property price index have a significant effect on Non-Performing Loan consumer credit. This study provides the importance of state-owned banks to maintain the quality of consumer credit portfolios.
References
Accornero, M., Alessandri, P., Carpinelli, L., & Sorrentiono, A. (2017). Non-performing loans and the supply of bank credit: evidence from Italy. Banca D’Italia Eurosistema, 347(1), 1–42.
Akbar, Z. I. (2020). Mengenal ekonomi makro. Binus University Article. https://sis.binus.ac.id/2020/11/02/mengenal-ekonomi-makro/
Atichasari, A. S., Ratnasari, A., Kulsum, U., Kahpi, H. S., Wulandari, S. S., & Marfu, A. (2023). Examining non-performing loans on corporate financial sustainability: Evidence from Indonesia. Sustainable Futures, 6(September), 100137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2023.100137
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2024). Distribusi PDRB. https://www.bps.go.id/id/statistics-table/2/MTEwIzI=/-seri-2010-3-distribusi-pdb-triwulanan-atas-dasar-harga-berlaku-menurut-pengeluaran.html
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2025). Number of construction companies. https://www.bps.go.id/en/statistics-table/2/MjE2IzI=/number-of-construction-companies.html
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2023). Kemiskinan di Indonesia. Badan Pusat Statistik. https://www.bps.go.id/id/pressrelease/2023/07/17/2016/profil-kemiskinan-di-indonesia-maret-2023.html
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2017). Upah minimum regional Indonesia. https://www.bps.go.id/id/statistics-table/2/MjIwIzI=/upah-minimum-regional-propinsi.html
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2025). Indonesia’s Household Savings. https://www.bps.go.id/en/publication?keyword=household account&onlyTitle=true&sort=latest
Bank for International Settlements. (2025). Debt service ratios. https://data.bis.org/topics/DSR
Bank Indonesia. (2023). Statistik ekonomi dan keuangan Indonesia. https://www.bi.go.id/id/statistik/ekonomi-keuangan/seki/Default.aspx#headingOne
Bank Indonesia. (2024). Laporan survei harga properti residensial triwulan I 2024. https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/laporan/Documents/SHPR_Tw_I_2024.pdf
Bank Indonesia. (2025). Target inflasi Indonesia. https://www.bi.go.id/id/statistik/indikator/target-inflasi.aspx
Bank Indonesia. (2025). Indeks Lending Standard 2022. (2025).
Bank Indonesia. (2025). Sales Growth of Indonesia’s Property. https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/laporan/default.aspx?kategori=survei+harga+properti+residensial+di+pasar+primer&periode=
Bank Indonesia. (n.d.). Pendapatan nasional. Bank Indonesia. https://www.bi.go.id/id/statistik/ekonomi-keuangan/seki/Default.aspx#headingThree
Basuki, A., & Prawoto, N. (2009). Panduan analisis regresi data panel. Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta.
Beck, R., Jakubik, P., & Piloiu, A. (2015). Key determinants of non-performing loans: New Evidence from a global sample. Open Economies Review, 26(3), 525–550. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-015-9358-8
Beureukat. (2022). Pengaruh suku bunga terhadap inflasi di Indonesia. Oikonomia: Jurnal Manajemen, 18(1), 39–46. https://doi.org/10.47313/oikonomia.v18i1.1546
Boumparis, P., Milas, C., & Panagiotidis, T. (2019). Non-performing loans and sovereign credit ratings. International Review of Financial Analysis, 64, 301–314. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2019.06.002
Chavan, P., & Gambacorta, L. (2019). Bank lending and loan quality: An emerging economy perspective. Empirical Economics, 57(1), 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-018-1436-5
Chen, J., Hardin, W., & Hu, M. (2020). Housing, Wealth, Income and Consumption: China and Homeownership Heterogeneity. WILEY Journal, 48. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12245
Cortés, D., & Soriano, P. (2024). Analysis of macroeconomic determinants of non-performance in consumer and mortgage loans. Finance Research Letters, 61(September 2023). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104939
Darmansyah, K. & Usman, B. (2015). Determinan non performing loan (NPL) pada industri perbankan: Bukti empiris perusahaan go public di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Aplikasi Manajemen, 66, 1–10.
Databoks. (2025). Indeks Lending Standard 2023. https://databoks.katadata.co.id/keuangan/statistik/a474bf25066716f/bi-prediksi-standar-penyaluran-kpr-sedikit-lebih-longgar-awal-2023
DeFusco, A. A., Tang, H., & Yannelis, C. (2022). Measuring the welfare cost of asymmetric information in consumer credit markets. Journal of Financial Economics, 146(3), 821–840. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.09.001
Desda, M. M., & Yurasti, Y. (2019). Analisis penerapan manajemen risiko kredit dalam meminimalisir kredit bermasalah pada PT BPR Swadaya Anak Nagari Bandarejo Simpang Empat periode 2013–2018. MBIA, 18(1), 94–106. https://doi.org/10.33557/mbia.v18i1.351
Effendi, I. (2016). pengaruh suku bunga terhadap kredit usaha mikro kecil dan menengah (UMKM) pada bank pembangunan daerah di Provinsi Jambi. Jurnal Ilmiah Universitas Batanghari Jambi, 16(1).
Fajar, S. S., Nainggolan, A. P., & Tarigan, P. (2015). Pengaruh non performing loan (NPL) dan likuiditas terhadap profitabilitas pada PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Tbk yang tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Financial: Jurnal Akuntansi, 1(2), 18–24.
Gamba-Santamaria, S., Melo-Velandia, L. F., & Orozco-Vanegas, C. (2024). Decomposition of non-performing loans dynamics into a debt-servicing capacity and a risk taking indicators. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 96(April), 101860. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2024.04.007
Ghosh, A. (2015). Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states. Journal of Financial Stability, 20, 93–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2015.08.004
Gujarati, D. (1972). Basic Econometrics 4th Edition. In The Economic Journal (Vol. 82, Issue 326). https://doi.org/10.2307/2230043
Jung, A. (2024). The quantity theory of money, 1870-2020. SSRN Electronic Journal, 2940. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4828359
Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum dan Perumahan Rakyat. (2019). Peraturan Menteri Pekerjaan Umum dan Perumahan Rakyat Republik Indonesia Nomor 13/PRT/M/2019 tentang bantuan pembiayaan perumahan berbasis tabungan.
Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum dan Perumahan Rakyat. (2019). Peraturan Menteri Pekerjaan Umum dan Perumahan Rakyat Republik Indonesia Nomor 20/PRT/M/2019 tentang kemudahan dan bantuan pemilikan rumah bagi masyarakat berpenghasilan rendah
Kemu, S. Z., Ika, S., & Mutaqin. (2016). Good financial safety net governance: Kajian kritis dalam kerangka RUU JPSK. Pusat Kebijakan Sektor Keuangan.
Linda, M., Megawati, & Deflinawati. (2015). Pengaruh inflasi, kurs, dan tingkat suku bunga terhadap non performing loan pada PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk Cabang Padang. Economica: Journal of Economic and Economic Education, 3(2), 137–144.
Louzis, D. P., Vouldis, A. T., & Metaxas, V. L. (2012). Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios. Journal of Banking and Finance, 36(4), 1012–1027. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.10.012
Miosido, M. K., & Siswani, C. B. (2024). R Restrukturisasi kredit sebagai upaya perlindungan bagi kreditur dan debitur dalam upaya penyelesaian kredit bermasalah. UNES Law Review, 7(2), 848–858.
Muzayyinulhaq. (2019). Analisis Permintaan Dan Penawaran Kredit Perbankan Di Indonesia. Universitas Brawijaya.
Nasution, S. S., & Prima, G. K. (2024). Analisis pengaruh risiko kredit, likuiditas, dan efisiensi manajemen terhadap profitabilitas bank BUMN, serta perbandingan kinerja keuangan bank BUMN dengan bank swasta (Studi kasus tahun 2013–2022). Inisiatif: Jurnal Ekonomi, Akuntansi dan Manajemen, 3(3), 340–357.
Nurkhafifa, Rijal, A., & Hamzah, H. (2024). Analisis Sistem pengendalian internal terhadap pemberian kredit pada PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia. Pinisi Journal of Art, Humanity & Social Studies, 4(2), 74–84.
O’Toole, C., & Slaymaker, R. (2021). Repayment capacity, debt service ratios and mortgage default: An exploration in crisis and non-crisis periods. Journal of Banking and Finance, 133, 106271. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106271
Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. (2020). Kemenkeu dan OJK tandatangani SKB pelaksanaan penempatan dana dan pemberian subsidi bunga dalam rangka program pemulihan ekonomi nasional [Press release].
Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. (2023). Statistik perbankan Indonesia. https://ojk.go.id/id/kanal/perbankan/data-dan-statistik/statistik-perbankan-indonesia/default.aspx
Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. (2025). Salinan surat edaran otoritas jasa keuangan republik indonesia nomor 19/seojk.06/2023 tentang penyelenggaraan layanan pendanaan bersama berbasis teknologi informasi.
Pancotto, L., ap Gwilym, O., & Williams, J. (2024). The evolution and determinants of the non-performing loan burden in Italian banking. Pacific Basin Finance Journal, 84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102306
Pramudito, Ari, & Hartono, J. (2019). Pengaruh inflasi dan BI rate terhadap non performing loan bank umum. Jurnal Universitas Gajah Mada.
Prasad, R., & Mathur, Y. B. (2022). Market design principles for the securitisation of non-performing loans. IIMB Management Review, 34(4), 392–404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iimb.2022.12.003
Priatna, H. (2021). Non performing loan (NPL) sebagai resiko bank atas pemberian kredit. Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi, 8(1), 22–33.
Purba, N. N., Syaukat, Y., & Ahmad, N. (2016). Faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi tingkat penyaluran kredit pada BPR konvensional di Indonesia. Jurnal Aplikasi Bisnis dan Manajemen, 2(2), 105–117. https://doi.org/10.17358/JABM.2.2.105
Putri, R. N. S. (2016). Perilaku suku bunga perbankan di Indonesia. Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi dan Bisnis (JPEB), 4(2), 136–140. https://doi.org/10.21009/JPEB.004.2.6
Putri, R., Syaharani, A., Ningrum, A., & Khazanah, F. (2024). Analisis tingkat kerawanan bencana, variabel makroekonomi dan tingkat kemahalan konstruksi terhadap indeks harga properti residensial tahun 2018-2022. Jurnal Manajemen Aset Dan Penilaian, 4(1).
Putri, Y., Halmi, Irmawati, I., & Harun, S. (2024). Analisis kelayakan kredit calon debitur sebagai dasar dalam pengambilan keputusan pemberian kredit usaha rakyat (studi kasus pada PT Bank BTN Syariah). Jurnal Sains Ekonomi Dan Edukasi, 1(12), 964–975.
Qorimah, D. A., Cahyani, L., Zulfaida, N., & Nirmala, W. P. (2022). Analisis pengaruh nilai tukar, tingkat suku bunga, inflasi, dan PDB terhadap indeks harga properti residensial tahun 2019–2022. Jurnal Manajemen Aset dan Penilaian, 4(1), 9–18.
Sefriyani, Y., & Khoirudin, R. (2021). Analisis non performing loan kredit pemilikan rumah bank persero. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Dan Sosial (JIES), 10(1), 19–29. https://publikasi.mercubuana.ac.id/index.php/jies/article/downloadSuppFile/11758/2056
Stiglitz. J. E. (n.d.). Columbia School of Internation and Public Affairs. Retrieved July 23, 2024, from https://www.sipa.columbia.edu/communities-connections/faculty/joseph-e-stiglitz
Skarica, B. (2014). Determinants of non-performing loans in Central and Eastern European countries. Financial Theory and Practice, 38(1), 37–59. https://doi.org/10.3326/fintp.38.1.2
Suhendra, I., & Ronaldo, E. (2017). Pengaruh intermediasi perbankan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Tirtayasa Ekonomika, 12(1), 169. https://doi.org/10.35448/jte.v12i1.4443
Surbakti, M., Nurhayati, E., & Utami, F. (2024). Analisis implementasi prinsip 5C untuk meningkatkan kualitas kredit guna bhakti di BJB KCP Palima. Maeswara : Jurnal Riset Ilmu Manajemen Dan Kewirausahaan, 2(3), 146–156. https://doi.org/10.61132/maeswara.v2i3.907
Suyitno, B. Y., & Djawoto. (2017). Pengaruh NPL dan LDR melalui profitabilitas sebagai variabel intervening terhadap nilai perusahaan. Jurnal Ilmu Dan Riset Manajemen, 6(2), 1–20. http://jurnalmahasiswa.stiesia.ac.id
Tajik, M., Aliakbari, S., Ghalia, T., & Kaffash, S. (2015). House prices and credit risk: Evidence from the United States. Economic Modelling, 51, 123–135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.08.006
The Fred. (2025). Indonesia: Final household consumption expenditure [Data set]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NCPHIRNSAXDCIDQ
The Fred. (2025). Indonesia’s Real Residential Index Property. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QIDR628BIS
Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia Nomor 10 Tahun 1998 tentang Perubahan atas Undang-Undang Nomor 7 Tahun 1992 tentang Perbankan. (1998). https://peraturan.bpk.go.id/Details/45486/uu-no-10-tahun-1998
Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia Nomor 7 Tahun 1992 tentang Perbankan. (1992). https://peraturan.bpk.go.id/Details/46599/uu-no-7-tahun-1992
Wan, J. (2018). Non-performing loans and housing prices in China. International Review of Economics and Finance, 57(March), 26–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2018.02.011
Wijaya, S. R. (2019). Pengaruh faktor makro ekonomi terhadap kredit bermasalah pada bank umum di Indonesia. OECONOMICUS Journal of Economics, 4(1), 36–48. https://doi.org/10.15642/oje.2019.4.1.36-48
Wiralaga, H., Dainta, K., & Nurlatifah, D. (2019). Pengaruh tingkat suku bunga kredit dan dana pihak ketiga terhadap jumlah penyaluran kredit pada bank umum swasta nasional di Indonesia Tahun 2015-2019. Jurnal Universitas Negeri Jakarta.
World Bank. (n.d.). Indonesia’s Consumer Price Index. World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL?most_recent_year_desc=false
Ybrayev, Z., Baizakov, A., Kailrullayev, E., & Mukhambetzhanova, D. (2024). Macroprudential policy effectiveness and interaction with monetary policy: Lessons from debt service-to-income cap implementation in Kazakhstan. Economic Systems, 49(1), 101254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101254
Zhang, H., Zheng, S., & Zhu, P. (2024). Why are Indonesian consumers buying on live streaming platforms? Research on consumer perceived value theory. Heliyon, 10(13). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e33518
Zhang, J., & Deng, X. (2022). Real Estate Tax, Housing Price, and Housing Wealth Effect: An Empirical Research on China Housing Market. Hindawi: Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/4809499
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Ellen Mulyono, Laila Masruro Pimada
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
