Development of Alternative Energy Transition Scenarios for Electricity Utility Companies in 2045 Using the Scenario Planning Method

Authors

  • Najahul Imtihan Senior Specialist of Strategic Planning, PT PLN (Persero), Indonesia
  • Ignatius Rendroyoko PLN Technology Institute, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24002/ijieem.v7i1.10125

Keywords:

electricity utility, energy transition, scenario planning, strategy, uncertainty

Abstract

In implementing the energy transition, electricity utility companies must be able to carry out future planning to replace electricity infrastructure from a fossil energy-based generation system to clean energy generation and new renewable energy (NRE) to achieve Net Zero Emission (NZE) conditions by 2060. Term planning. What has often been done so far is to use forecasting methods, which are made by utilizing historical databases and using many assumptions about economic, social, and environmental conditions, as well as other factors that are easily changed and close to uncertainty. Therefore, planning methods must consider possible changes and uncertainties with several possible scenarios. Scenario planning is planning with a strategic approach that focuses on the process, involving finding optimal strategies for several scenarios that can occur, and this method helps deal with uncertainty. This paper explores the development of alternative scenarios that may occur in 2045, using scenario planning to help electricity utility companies capture opportunities and offset threats. It focuses on formulating broad and innovative strategies for the energy transition in the electricity business.

Author Biography

Najahul Imtihan, Senior Specialist of Strategic Planning, PT PLN (Persero), Indonesia

Najahul Imtihan started his career in PLN as a Young Expert in Distribution System Mapping at the PLN Jember Branch in 1995. He graduated from Sriwijaya University in 1993 with an electrical engineering degree. He worked as an operations supervisor at PT Inalum Hydro Electric Power Plant, the 615 MW Hydroelectric Power Plant in Sigura-gura, Porsea, North Sumatra.

He has held various positions at PLN, starting from Head of PLN Kalisat Branch in Jember Branch to General Manager of PLN Electricity Maintenance Center in Bandung, Executive Vice President of Human Capital Management System, Executive Vice President of Supply Chain Management at PLN Central, and currently as Senior Strategic Planning Specialist. Apart from this position, he was also mandated as a PLN Pension Fund Supervisory Board member and Commissioner of PT Prima Service Spare Parts (PLN SC). In 2004-2006, he was assigned to study at the University of Missouri Saint Louis in the United States. He received a Master of Business Administration (MBA) degree and a Graduate Certificate in Logistics and Supply Chain Management from the same University. Since 2023, he has participated in a Doctoral program at Gadjahmada University, in the Leadership and Policy Innovation Study Program. The certifications currently obtained are Principal Professional Engineer (IPU) in the electrical sector from the Indonesian Engineers Association and Qualified Chief Risk Officer (QCRO) from LSP MKS.

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Published

2025-06-30

How to Cite

Imtihan, N., & Rendroyoko, I. (2025). Development of Alternative Energy Transition Scenarios for Electricity Utility Companies in 2045 Using the Scenario Planning Method: . International Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, 7(1), 89–101. https://doi.org/10.24002/ijieem.v7i1.10125

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025)

Section

Articles

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Copyright (c) 2025 Najahul Imtihan, Ignatius Rendroyoko

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